There is one fundamental problem (fortunately solved) for realism: foreing policy is downstream of political survival. If realism is the Mearsheimer historicist variety, it is not relevant because it is wrong.
If realism is the Bueno de Mesquita variety, where internal political survival determines foreing policy, and different regimes on the same country determine very different foreing policy, it is clearly the rigth paradigm.
There is one fundamental problem (fortunately solved) for realism: foreing policy is downstream of political survival. If realism is the Mearsheimer historicist variety, it is not relevant because it is wrong.
If realism is the Bueno de Mesquita variety, where internal political survival determines foreing policy, and different regimes on the same country determine very different foreing policy, it is clearly the rigth paradigm.
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/kBLJgARsfXW5xYLtj/the-dictator-s-handbook-book-by-bruce-bueno-de-mesquita-and