Plus ça change? France and European Defence After the Legislative Elections

Policy Brief, Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy, Brussels School of Governance

The French legislative elections in late June and early July, and the instability that can be anticipated in French domestic politics, have raised questions about France’s ability to shape European security and defence — and with it Europe’s role as an actor in this field. This policy brief, published in July 2024 with the Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Stategy of the Brussels School of Governance, argues that:

• President Macron will most likely keep grip on security and defence policy regardless of the next prime minister or the new government.

• Potential spillover effects on European defence could result from challenges to vote a budget, a gap between the perception of French President Macron himself and abroad, and caution among allies to put all their eggs into the basket of cooperation with France in light of a 2027 scenario.

• Leadership and coalitions in European security have become more diverse recently, and the French legislative elections are going to catalyse this trend. Particularly the UK and Poland, but also Italy and Germany, can be expected to play more visible roles.

• The EU institutions are likely to continue implementing and further pursuing an ambitious agenda for EU defence, which will be in line with the vision of European sovereignty France has pushed for since 2017.

The full policy brief is available here.