Geopolitical Europe Pulse: uncertainty over French legislative elections

28 June 2024

In reaction to the results of the EU elections, French President Macron has called for snap legislative elections, and the first round will be held this Sunday, 30 June. This edition of the Geopolitical Europe Pulse brings you a roundup of commentaries and analyses on the the programmes of the parties and the potential implications of different electoral scenarios for French foreign policy and Europe.

1. First things first: how do the elections work? The French will vote in two rounds on 30 June and, if the candidate in their district does not obtain 50% of the vote (representing 25% of eligible voters) in the first round, vote again in a second run-off round on 7 July (on all candidates who obtained more than 12,5%). France24 has an overview on the voting procedure as well as the competences and powers of the French Assemblée Nationale.

2. What would a victory of the French far-right mean for foreign policy? It could arguably have a significant effect on the perception of France in Europe, but also on its capacity (or willingness) to contribute to Europe’s role in the world. In this article in Foreign Policy, Célia Bélin and Mathieu Droin argue that the scenario of a cohabitation “would test France’s approach toward Ukraine, Israel, NATO, and the EU”.

3. Focus on defence programmes: As defence is a “domaine partagé”, a shared domain between the President and the Prime Minister, it remains to be seen how the balance of power between the Elysée and Matignon will play out in case of a cohabitation, meaning the scenario where the Prime Minister and the President are not from the same party. The programmes of all three major parties/ bloc give a glimpse of defence policy priorities — an overview can be found here. However, security and defence, and foreign policy more broadly, are clearly not the focus of the electoral campaign.

4. Implications for the Franco-German engine: Regardless of the outcome of the legislative elections in France, the strong results for the far-right in France and Germany in the EU election weaken both Macron and Scholz domestically. Although leadership has become more scattered in the EU in recent years, Franco-German leadership and visions for the EU remains critical. To transform Europe in a changing geopolitical landscape, the Franco-German couple has to transform itself into a “hybrid engine”, and should prioritise a method focusing on enlargement, trust, and sovereignty, argue Mathieu Droin and myself in this piece in the summer issue of Internationale Politik Quarterly.

5. Looking beyond the legislative elections to the presidential elections 2027: The scenario of a President Marine Le Pen in 2027 already sparked concerns in other European capitals since the last presidential elections. In case of a government led by the far-right Rassemblement National, France’s partners in Europe are likely to prepare this scenario more concretely. This piece by Georgina Wright, published in January 2024, gives an overview on Le Pen’s thinking on Europe and the implications for France’s partners — perhaps more relevant today than anticipated in the beginning of the year.

France is not the only major European country where citizens will be casting a ballot in the next days. The UK’s holds general elections on 4 July, and particularly the combination of both could significantly change dynamics within Europe. Expect more on this topic in the upcoming editions of the Geopolitical Europe Pulse…