Geopolitical Europe Pulse: tensions in the Taiwan Strait
23 August 2024
Many of Europe’s key foreign policy actors still seem to be on a summer break, or at least busy with internal challenges: Germany’s coalition fights over the budget (with potential repercussions on military aid for Ukraine), French President Macron will aim to find a majority that could form a government this weekend, and EU Commission President von der Leyen needs to solve the puzzle of composing the Commissioners team (Commission tracker here). But geopolitics does not go on summer break, and especially the situation around Taiwan has increasingly come to the focus of those following issues on global security closely. Today’s edition of the Geopolitical Europe Pulse brings you an update on recent developments in the Taiwan strait, the involvement of Europeans in the past, and background on the US’ stance on Taiwan.
German ships awaiting order: The German fregate Baden-Württemberg and the support vessel Frankfurt am Main are currently deployed to the Indo-Pacific; it is the second Indo-Pacific deployment of the German navy after the initial one in 2021. Earlier this week, it was reported that the German frigate was awaiting order from Berlin whether or not to cross the Taiwan strait.
Why did Germany actually step up its engagement in maritime security in Asia? The short answer is: because it adds a security component to protect its economic interests. The Japan Times has a long read on the background.
EU-Taiwan relations: The EU’s approach to Taiwan has changed over the last years: you’ll find an overview with historical background and major actors in the article “Leaving the dragon’s shadow – Normative Power Europe and the emergence of a Taiwan policy in the EU?” (2023). Following the elections in the EU and Taiwan, which both took place earlier this year, one might see additional policy changes, but also continuity — background in this podcast.
Two US perspectives on Taiwan: The strategic importance of Taiwan for the United States has a direct impact on US foreign policy decisions — including its demands vis-à-vis allies. While some argue that “US power does not hinge on a single island”, others see it as the upmost priority for US foreign policy, and argue that the US “should prioritise Taiwan over Ukraine”.
US strategic choices over Taiwan matter for Europe: No matter which approach Washington adopts, Europeans need to be prepared. The authors of the piece “The two theatre tragedy” argue that “even if Europeans decide to remain on the sidelines, U.S. involvement in a war over Taiwan will leave behind a considerable power vacuum in Europe and create conventional deterrence gaps”.