Geopolitical Europe Pulse: new dynamics in the US presidential race

26 July 2024

The dynamics in the US presidential race have significantly changed over the last week: with President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race, current Vice President and very likely presidential nominee for the Democrats, Kamala Harris, has taken up her campaign with full speed. Meanwhile, Senator J.D. Vance (Ohio) is confirmed as Trump’s running mate. This edition of the Geopolitical Europe Pulse brings you a roundup of commentaries and analyses on the potential foreign policy agendas that could follow the US election — and their implications for Europe.

First things first: What EU policy can be expected from Washington? While China is likely to be the top priority for US foreign policy regardless of the next administration, a Trump scenario would imply disruption and a turn to transactional and bilateral relations. In contrast, Harris would continue engaging with the EU directly; a concrete area for global cooperation could be the fight against climate change. Read more on the expected agendas here.

Trump/Vance scenario: direct and indirect ramifications for Europe: In his latest column in Foreign Policy, “The Trump/ Vance Unilateralist Delusion”, Stephen M. Walt outlines the potential consequences of the duo’s foreign policy agenda for the United States’ role in the world. In a nutshell: detrimental to the US’ current favourable global position, very bad news for its allies.

Europeans in search of Harris: Officials in many European capitals still seem to figure out the potential foreign policy implications of a Harris administration, as this overview of European perceptions of the Vice President demonstrates. These two formats should be on their list: the Ezra Klein Show episode “Is Kamala Harris Underrated”, which provides a deep dive into her career and role as Vice President, and her speech at the Munich Security Conference in February, in which she outlined her views on the most pressing security challenges.