Geopolitical Europe Pulse: NATO summit ahead

5 July 2024

This year’s NATO summit takes place from 9-11 July in Washington, D.C. — and although taking place in the year of the 75th anniversary of NATO, it is questionable whether Allies will actually have a reason to celebrate at the summit, given the significant divergences on the future of the European security order, a looming Trump scenario, and disunity over the future of Ukraine. This edition of the Geopolitical Europe Pulse brings you a roundup of commentaries and analyses on the stakes of the NATO summit, the role of Europeans in NATO, and the implications for Europeans.

1. First things first: What to expect from NATO’s Washington Summit? Four experts from CSIS look into the crystal ball here, and suggest that NATO needs to focus on “four ‘mores’: more cash, more combat power, more capabilities, and more cooperation”.

2. Strengthening European defence and the European pillar in NATO: While Russia’s war on Ukraine has exposed the insufficient state of European defence, a scenario of a Trump II administration, as well as more broadly shifting US strategic priorities, will force them to significantly enhance their capabilities in the future. “Defending Europe with less America” outlines the stakes and six policy priorities for Europeans.

3. Europe Alone? Regardless of the next administration in the White House, Europeans will have to brace for at least less embrace, and potentially even abandonment (in a Trump II scenario) from the United States. Nine leading thinkers (mostly from Europe) on European affairs, security and defence, and geopolitics outline how this future would look like, and how Europeans can prepare for the geopolitical challenges they are facing.

4. Open letter: Leading International Relations scholars and experts have published an open letter in POLITICO, “At NATO’s Summit, the Alliance Should Not Move Ukraine Toward Membership”. According to their argument, NATO enlargement will not benefit dealing with Russia, but come at the cost of security for the US and European allies. While many Europeans may reason differently, it’s a must-read on US strategic thinking and an excellent insight in the US strategic debate.

5. Beyond Europe — NATO and the Indo-Pacific: While the US push NATO allies to embrace more engagement of the Alliance in the Indo-Pacific, Europeans are mostly hesitant, or openly opposed, to this endeavour. This piece makes the case for NATO to “think big” on the Indo-Pacific, and work on a “cross-theatre deterrence ecosystem for Europe and the Indo-Pacific”.