Geopolitical Europe Pulse: Munich Security Conference pre-read
14 February 2025
This weekend, the Munich Security Conference will gather leaders, experts, and representatives from civil society to discuss the most significant global security challenges today. As the conference has significantly broadened its focus beyond the transatlantic alliance, this Geopolitical Europe Pulse compiles a pre-read on recent pieces on different regional and global challenges.
Munich Security Report 2025 - A Perfect Polar Storm: In the chapter focusing on Europe in this year’s Munich Security Report (“Multipolarization”), the authors paint a dark picture. They argue that “the EU’s liberal vision for the international order has been facing headwinds for some time, and these winds have now turned into a perfect storm”, illustrate how Russia’s war against Ukraine and the re-election of Donald Trump will significantly alter the European security order, and how Europe’s structural economic weaknesses are challenged by the increasing securitisation and weaponisation of economic interdependencies. The conclusion: Europe has to brace or might be blown away. The full chapter is available here.
A dormant NATO would not be the worst-case — if Europe shapes it: The future of NATO will certainly be a key debate during MSC and beyond. In this piece published earlier on Geopolitical Europe, I argue that the scenario of a “dormant NATO”, which might gain traction in Republican circles, is not necessarily the worst-case for Europe — if Europe actively shapes it and approaches the Trump administration with a concrete offer.
Syria’s biggest problem: The return of Syrian refugees will be one of, if not the, determining factors for the future stability of the country and have a major effect on the region. “Syria’s future hinges on the safe, dignified return of the refugees who will help rebuild a nation scarred by years of conflict”, write the authors of this piece in Foreign Affairs. They unpack the major challenges and possibilities for the international community to support.
Southeast Asia: The Indo-Pacific is an increasingly important region for European foreign and security policy; and yet, European states face challenges in engaging with powers in the region. “Europe’s waning influence in the Indo-Pacific is not just the result of external pressures – it is also a reflection of its own limitations. Chief among these is the lack of coherent and sustained engagement with the Indo-Pacific”, argues this policy brief published with the EUISS.
Europe’s approach to the Sahel: The withdrawal of European military missions from the Sahel also prompts questions on Europe’s future engagement with the region and its ability to play a constructive role. The policy brief “Aligned in the sand: How Europeans can help stabilise the Sahel” suggests that “European governments should stay involved in the Sahel wherever possible. The region is part of Europe’s neighbourhood; rival outside powers have no qualms about mass human-rights abuses; and further disengagement will only open up new inroads for malign actors”. The brief also outlines potential avenues for engagement.
EU-China relations in 2025: China policy and potential coordination with the United States on China will arguably be one of Europe’s biggest geopolitical challenges in the years to come. This podcast unpacks the issues.