Geopolitical Europe Pulse: European security after the US elections

15 November 2024

A bit more than one week after the US elections, European states and the EU are still uncertain about the potential consequences of the second Trump term, but it is almost safe to say that European security and trade policy might be directly affected from the President-elects agenda from the very beginning onwards. This Geopolitical Europe Pulse brings you a roundup of content dissecting the implications of the election for Europe, and analysing the next steps European states and/ or the EU should take.

Implications for European security and defence: What does a second Trump term mean for European security and defence? In a nutshell: Europeans will have to do much more on their own — and fast. In detail, Sophia Besch and Luigi Scazzieri discuss all potential consequences and European responses in the CER Podcast Episode “Unpacking Trump”.

Ending the war in 24 hours? Cynics could say that the election results have been known for 24 hours and the incoming US President has not resolved the war in Ukraine (as he had announced during his campaign) yet. On a more realistic side, this endeavour will — unsurprisingly for experts, policy-makers or analysts — require more effort. This piece on Engelsberg Ideas presents five major obstacles for Trump’s peace plan.

Becoming a geoeconomic power: Earlier this week, French President Macron and former President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi warned against a potential trade war with the United States. Even beyond tariffs, Europe must brace for economic coercion from Washington in the next four years. This Foreign Affairs article outlines how a European strategy to prepare and respond could look like. Spoiler: it won’t be possible without significant investment.

What about the UK? The United Kingdom might have a different relationship with the US than many other European states under Trump because it is not an EU member states anymore, but this does not mean that the relationship will be anyway easier. In fact, London might have to juggle both relations with Washington, Brussels, and individual EU member states. This episode of The Expert Factor unpacks the implications of the election for UK-US relations, UK security and defence policy, and EU-US relations.

A piece that aged well: In February 2023, I wrote an op-ed with the title “Abandoning Strategic Autonomy is Geopolitical Surrender for the EU”. In light of the events of the last year and especially the last two weeks, the piece aged rather well and might be worth another read.