Geopolitical Europe Pulse: EU in US-China competition under Trump

29 November 2024

As the US elections have passed and the first nominations for the new US administration are announced, Europeans are bracing for the potential repercussions of US-China competition for the EU. This week’s Geopolitical Europe Pulse brings you a roundup of content on the potential implications of US-China competition under Trump on the EU, measures for the EU to prepare, and the consequences for EU-China relations.

Risk of fragmentation: US President Trump might force Europeans to align with the United States’ approach towards China. Even under the previous administration, a key challenge for European coordination on China and talking to Washington with one EU voice often failed due to the lack of European consensus. These rifts among Europeans might deepen dependent on the US approach to Europe’s role in US-China competition, as outlined in this piece in the South China Morning Post.

Adjustments in Beijing: Just as Europeans might reconsider their approach vis-à-vis China, policy-makers in Beijing might also adjust their policy towards Europe as a result of the US election. MERICS outlines how this could look like in this piece.

The role of EU economic statecraft: The EU’s economic instruments will be critical to mitigate the ramifications of a looming US-China trade war on EU member states. This piece outlines how the EU could fledge out its economic statecraft to enhance economic resilience whilst also making the necessary investments for economic transition and holding up the principles of a multilateral rules-based order.