Geopolitical Europe Pulse: EU elections - high stakes for security, defence, and foreign policy

7 May 2024

The European Parliament elections have officially started on 6 June. Until Sunday, 9 June, around 373 million EU citizens in 27 member states can cast a ballot — and the vote is likely to be consequential for EU security and defence, as well as the EU’s role in the world. This week’s edition of the Geopolitical Europe Pulse brings you compilation of articles and resources on the stakes of the election, potential scenarios, and what to watch.

1. What’s at stake for European security and defence? As the European Parliament does not have legislative competence in the field of the Common Foreign and Security Policy — its resolutions are non-binding —, EU security and defence policy is unlikely to be affected by the result of the elections on the short-term. However, other policy areas that are critical for the future of EU security and defence, such as industrial policy, and, perhaps most importantly, its budget, will be voted by the new members of the European Parliament. As the European Parliament approves the Commission President and Commissioners, its composition also determines which candidates can pass. This piece explains in detail what’s at stake in the elections.

2. What’s it all about, and why should people outside the EU actually care? Because the EU elections also affect central policy areas for the EU’s interaction with the world, most importantly trade — the EU is the world’s largest single market and free trade area —, its leaders, and policy-making inside the bloc. This piece by Tara Varma and Sophie Roehse perfectly sums up how the elections work, and why they matter beyond Europe.

3. Ukraine on the ballot: Among the members of the outgoing European Parliament, 512 votes in favour of the last support package to Ukraine, while only 45 opposed the package (63 abstentions). Indeed, the stance on Ukraine has become a dividing line between centrist parties and far-right parties in almost all countries, which is also reflected in their campaigns. Here’s an overview of how Ukraine, and the connections of the far-right to Russia, mattered in the campaigns.

4. Looking South — the EU and the Mediterranean: Two of the most pressing challenges for EU foreign policy require it to tailor a new approach to the region, namely the war in Gaza and migration. Expert perspectives on the evolution of the EU’s future policy on the region are gloomy. In the words of Haizam Amirah-Fernandez, an independent Middle East analyst based in Madrid, the EU’s “aspirations to be a global actor, a normative power and a promoter of a rules-based international order have been deeply undermined in a matter of months. Current and future EU officials should provide answers to the following questions: Is it worth giving any foreign country full impunity?” Beyond Gaza, experts expect the EU’s Mediterranean agenda to be characterised rather by continuity than change — meaning more externalisation of migration policy and aid packages reinforcing the status quo. This roundup by ISPI gathers different expert views on the EU’s future Mediterranean agenda.

5. China policy after the EU elections: The new composition of the European Parliament will also impact the bloc’s stance on China, given that China-related legislation (think, for example, of standards…) passes through the European Parliament. This explainer by APCO describes how fragmentations will make it harder for the EU to strike consensus on China policy, how Beijing might react to that, and why particularly the policy areas of agriculture, aerospace and aviation, artificial intelligence, and energy might become important.

And one important reminder in the end: if you are eligible to vote in the European Parliament elections, use your vote!