Geopolitical Europe Pulse: E3 and the Euro quad, the return of the Jedis?
25 October 2024
France, the UK, and Germany remain critical players in European security — as illustrated by the widely shared photos of French President Macron, British Prime Minister Starmer, and German Chancellor Scholz joining US President Biden for a discussion on the future of Ukraine last week. Just a few days later, the UK and Germany signed a bilateral defence agreement, and thereby also clearly strengthen cooperation within the E3 triangle. This edition of the Geopolitical Europe Pulse brings you a compilation of sources and articles on the UK-Germany defence agreement, France’s nuclear weapons and the future of European security, and the (ir)relevance of the European Quad.
It’s signed: This week, the UK and Germany signed the Trinity House Agreement, a bilateral defence agreement covering a wide range of topics. As bilateral treaties already existed between the UK and France (Lancaster House) and France and Germany (Elysée Treaty, updated through Aachen treaty), the agreement can be seen as a strengthening of the third side of the E3 triangle. This potential result is also emphasised in the agreement, as it is seen to complement the UK’s and Germany’s “respective existing bilateral agreements with France, laying the foundation for increasingly close co-operation between the E3”. Among others, the agreement sets the ambition to develop deep precision strike and defence capabilities, enhance interoperability between Future Combat Air Systems, a Strategic Land Partnership to strengthen the Eastern flank, and undersea cooperation in the Northern Seas. Another part of the agreement is “developing plans between the UK MOD and Rheinmetall for a new barrel factory to be opened in the UK”. The full text is available here. Next up: a full bilateral treaty in 2025.
France’s nuclear weapons and the future of European security: Russia’s war against Ukraine and uncertainty over the US elections have brought a nuclear dimension back into debates on European security. Already back in 2020, French President Macron emphasised that French vital interests also had a European dimension, yet without providing further precisions. The article “France’s Nuclear Offer to Europe” unpacks this concept and its implications for partners. For a deep dive into the topic, including a long list of recommendations, the 2023 study “France’s Nuclear Weapons and Europe” is worth a (re-)read.
E3 and US: The so-called European Quad, leaders of France, Germany, the UK, and the United States, met in Berlin last week to discuss the future of European security and options for the war in Ukraine. Not invited: Poland — which one can either interpret as hybris of the other participants, a lack of understanding for Poland’s role in a future European security order, or a tacit agreement that the centre of power in Europe has not shifted to the East. Is this format still relevant? Experts weigh in in this edition of „Taking the Pulse“.