Geopolitical Europe Pulse: deterrence made in Europe?

11 October 2024

Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and especially in light of the scenario of less US engagement in European defence — up to scenarios of US abandonment —, discussions on deterrence are back on the European agenda. This week’s edition of the Geopolitical Europe Pulse brings you a compilation of articles on the Europe’s capabilities, evolving role, and future options for European deterrence.

All you need to know about European nuclear deterrence: Historical background, a mapping of the current state of European nuclear deterrence, arguments in favour and against, and a list of policy options — the research paper “Why Europe needs a nuclear deterrent: a critical appraisal” has it all. All you need is time for the almost 50 pages.

A Franco-British-German perspective: Published in Survival, the “Forum: Towards a European Nuclear Deterrent” provides in-depth insights into the strategies and ongoing reflections in France, the UK, and Germany. Conclusion: “Better coordination between Berlin, London and Paris is urgently needed, and they need to net in other capitals. Arms control and disarmament remain shared European goals, but they have become increasingly remote. Given their international standing, the three countries have a responsibility to try to sustain the viability of those goals even under difficult circumstances.”

What could the EU do? In a nutshell: supporting NATO, enhancing its resilience against hybrid threat, build conventional capabilities in the medium-term, and link reflections on the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific security theatre when reflecting on deterrence. The policy brief “Resilience and Reassurance: Towards a Role for the EU in Deterrence?”, published with the Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy in 2023, elaborates on these approaches more in detail.

Nuclear nerdy: Fancy some reading on international relations theory? Robert Jervis’ book “The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution”, published in 1989, is one of the fundamental works on nuclear strategy. This written version of the book roundtable “The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution 30 Years Later”, published in the Texas National Security Review, outlines how the ideas shape thinking about nuclear strategy until today, and how going back to the roots of theory can be beneficial for thinking about nuclear strategy today.