Geopolitical Europe Pulse: after the French elections and the NATO summit
12 July 2024
European security and defence observers look back to a busy week: a surprise result of the French elections — with the left bloc winning, but no party obtaining an absolute majority —, and the 75th NATO summit in Washington, DC. This edition of the Geopolitical Europe Pulse brings you a roundup of commentaries and analyses on the results of the French elections and the future of NATO.
First things first: What do the French elections mean for European security and defence? The result may have led to domestic uncertainty, and although most experts in this compilation of perspectives expect Macron’s margin of manoeuvre and power on European defence to shrink, others are more optimistic.
Short recap of the French elections: This edition of the WarCast has a quick explainer of the results, the challenges of forming a government, and the implications for foreign policy and Europe.
Towards a European pillar in NATO: After the elections in France and the UK, the NATO summit, and ahead of the US elections, Europe’s two most capable powers need to play a central role in strengthening NATO’s European pillar. In order to make Europeans less dependent on European electoral jiggles, “NATO needs a European backbone, not American crutches”, as our op-ed argues.
What about NATO in the Indo-Pacific? Representatives of the AP4 (Australia, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea) joined the NATO summit, but the role of the alliance in the Indo-Pacific remains a hotly debated topic among allies. There are good reasons why NATO should stay out of Asia, argue experts on the topic — emphasising that "it would make the region less, not more, secure”.
Last but not least, the big question: will NATO survive a second Trump term? This overview compiles perspectives from think tankers from both sides of the Atlantic. In a nutshell: depends on whom you ask, but there’s probably a reason for cautious optimism.